Our Oscars Preview - The Technical Categories [2025]

It's Oscars Week '25! Maybe this our year to nail our predictions... Here is Part 1 of our preview.

Emilia Pérez [2024]

Best Original Song

Nominees

• "El Mal" from Emilia Pérez - Music and lyrics by Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard (-310)
• "Mi Camino" from Emilia Pérez - Music and lyrics by Camille and Clément Ducol (+800)
• "The Journey" from The Six Triple Eight - Music and lyrics by Diane Warren (+400)
• "Never Too Late" from Elton John: Never Too Late - Music and lyrics by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin (+800)
• "Like A Bird" from Sing Sing - Music and lyrics by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada (+2000)

Predictions

Hopster: This year's highest grossing film and most popular soundtrack, Wicked, is peppered with ten nominations – and yet, due to the restrictions of the Best Original Song category, does not have a song represented here (please forgive this tangent and maybe this is a conversation for another day, but does this really need to be Best Original Song? In what tends to be one of the weaker categories year in and year out, would anyone be upset if this was changed to include both original songs and adapted songs? That way, new enditions of previously written songs could be eligible in this category. Wouldn't it be a more fun collection of nominees if a song from Wicked made it into the mix for adaptaing a song from the musical to the screen? This seems like an easy way to spice things up a bit)... So, we're left debating whether or not the former frontrunner Emilia Pérez, which at one point had this category locked up, can win secure what might be one of only a few victories come Oscar night. The film has 13 nominations, two of which are songs.

As it turns out, dual nominations in Best Original Song happens more often than you might expect – according to Reddit (don't mind me piggybacking here), there have been 16 years with a film getting multiple song nominations (and 18 films total, with two years with two films each getting two songs). In those years, the winning song came from the multi-nominated film more than two-thirds of the time, meaning this is a strong indicator but still not a guarantee. I'll note that even without going back through and parsing through which films did not win, it would be hard to believe that any of those had more off-the-court controversy than Emilia Pérez has had, so it is very possible voters look for another winner in what is one of this year's the thinner categories. If you're looking for an upset, maybe throw your weight behind Diane Warren, who has earned sixteen Academy Award nominations (and still has not won) and received an Academy Award at the Governor Awards in 2022. Perhaps Academy voters will seek to make good on her prolific career of Oscar recognition and make the Warren the bride instead of the bridesmaid for once.

Isaac: "El Mal" from Emilia Pérez - Music and lyrics by Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard

The Wild Robot [2024]

Best Original Score

Nominees

• The Brutalist - Daniel Blumberg (-400)
• Conclave - Volker Bertelmann (+800)
• The Wild Robot - Kris Bowers (+400)
• Emilia Pérez - Clément Ducol and Camille (+1600)
• Wicked - John Powell and Stephen Schwartz (+3500)

Predictions

Isaac: I'm still reeling from the terrible omission of Trent Reznor and Atticuz Ross' absolutely electric score in Challengers, but now is not the time to grieve. It's also not the time to complain about how weird the Oscar rules are since Hans Zimmer's score for Dune: Part Two was disqualified for reusing too much of the prior Dune score but Wicked is nominated with preexisting musicality throughout. As you can tell, I'm obviously not upset or anything. Luckily, Wicked and my arch-nemesis Emilia Pérez are bringing up the rear of the pack and my three favorites are at the top, odds-wise. Bowers' work on The Wild Robot adds a tremendous emotional backbone to an already terrific movie and the Bertelmann score in Conclave is equally wonderful. It's smooth, thrilling nature, elevates the stakes of Berger's papal drama and could be a dark horse candidate when it comes time to open the envelope. But, nothing can really compare to the feeling you get when you first hear Blumberg's overture in The Brutalist when the Statue of Liberty hits the screen. Equal parts triumphant and dreary, especially as The Brutalist climbs its lengthy runtime, Blumberg's score is undeniably one of the best of the year and, well, I think it just might be the best.

Hopster: The Brutalist - Daniel Blumberg

Best Sound

Nominees

• A Complete Unknown - Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco (+350)
• Dune: Part Two - Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill (-400)
• Emilia Pérez - Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta (+5000)
• Wicked - Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis (+600)
• The Wild Robot - Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff Lefferts (+5000)

Predictions

Hopster: In case you missed it (I would almost guarantee the vast majority of the human population missed this piece of news), but Hollywood's two largest guilds for sound achievement in film had their awards this past weekend. On Saturday, the 61st Cinema Audio Society Awards took place, and on Sunday, the 72nd Golden Reel Awards were held. The former guild honors outstanding achievements in sound mixing, while the latter honors the best in sound editing. If you'll remember, sound mixing and sound editing were two distinct categories at the Academy Awards for many years until 2020, when the two were consolidated into a composite category called Best Sound. All five of this year's Oscar nominees in Best Sound were recognized at these two guild awards ceremonies this past weekend, so there is little to go on in terms of predicting this category. Pundits might steer you to place your bets on the current betting favorite Dune: Part Two, a fair recommendation considering its predecessor won Best Sound just a few years back. The other two films that seem to be have a fighter's chance of snagging the prize are A Complete Unknown and Wicked. I'm putting my money on A Complete Unknown, a film with accomplished sound mixing that excels at bringing the audience back in time to an era when sound amplification was a bit more primitive and the very idea of a folk hero going electric would be somewhat otherworldly. Like when Bohemian Rhapsody won a few years ago, (which was laughable then and eye-roll-worthy now), good sound mixing can sometimes take the cake over over great sound editing.

Isaac: Dune: Part Two - Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill

Gladiator II [2024]

Best Costume Design

Nominees

• A Complete Unknown - Arianne Phillips (+2500)
• Conclave - Lisy Christl (+800)
• Gladiator II - Janty Yates and Dave Crossman (+3500)
• Nosferatu - Linda Muir (+1400)
• Wicked - Paul Tazewell (-2000)

Predictions

Isaac: The Costume Designers Guild separates their yearly awards into three categories, Excellence in Contemporary Film, Period Film, and Sci-Fi/Fantasy Film which was awarded to Conclave, Nosferatu, and Wicked respectively. So it only makes sense that those three are the frontrunners. However, Paul Tazewell's work for Wicked has also won the Critics Choice Award and BAFTA while Lisy Christl and Linda Muir have a lesser resume of precursor awards. The CDG Awards are a huge lift for Nosferatu and Conclave but the lack of extra oomph puts them at a severe disadvantage compared to Wicked. Therefore, I'm inclined to believe that this is a runaway victory for Wicked.

Hopster: Wicked - Paul Tazewell

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees

• A Different Man - Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado (+3500)
• Emilia Pérez - Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini (+2800)
• Nosferatu - David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton (+1400)
• The Substance - Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli (-1400)
• Wicked - Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth (+600)

Predictions

Hopster: This is one of those Oscar categories where "more is more," if you know what I mean. In trying to recognize the effectiveness that makeup and hairstyling can have on the end-product of a film, Oscar voters tend to reward movies with the most makeup and hairstyling. This year's group of nominees contains a lot of films with capital M makeup and capital H hairstyling. While Nosferatu, Wicked, and A Different Man are all extremely dependent on the top-notch execution of makeup and hairstyling from a storytelling perspective, The Substance is perhaps a cut above its peers. Part The Elephant Man part The Thing, this body horror film quite literally relies on the creative boldness of the makeup and hairstyling decisions that take place to pull of the film's slew of magic tricks, no matter how grotesque they may be. Aside from Emilia Pérez, the other four nominees would be worthy of a win, but I'm putting my money on The Substance.

Isaac: The Substance - Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli

Best Production Design

Nominees

• The Brutalist - Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia (+800)
• Conclave - Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter (+900)
• Dune: Part Two - Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau (+3500)
• Nosferatu - Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová (+500)
• Wicked - Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales (-400)

Predictions

Isaac: Similar to the Costume Designer Guild, the Art Directors Guild separates their feature film awards into five categories and for the sake of this exercise we can omit the Television Movie and Animated Feature Film groups, which leaves us with Period, Fantasy, and Contemporary Feature Film awards. Which, you guessed it, was awarded to Nosferatu, Wicked, and Conclave respectively, just like the CDG awards. Nosferatu actually bested The Brutalist in the Period category giving it a bigger boost, but Conclave and Wicked being at the top or close-ish by is understandable. In fact, the Contemporary and Fantasy categories have been incredibly strong predictors in recent years, with Poor Things and Dune winning (All Quiet on the Western Front was the winner in 2022 but did not win the ADG so its excluded from this point). But overall, the ADG award for a Period Feature Film has the most winners in common with the Academy Award for Production Design since 2006, when the ADG Fantasy and Period awards were split into their own categories. Since then, there have been seven Period winners, 6 Fantasy winners, and only 5 Contemporary winners. Which means a win for Crowley, a frequent Christopher Nolan collaborator, would be the tying win for Fantasy ADG winners, but I have a feeling that voters are gonna go a little hog-wild this year. Odds be damned, I am drawn to the Nosferatu underdog story like no other and think a split between Costume and Production Design is due.

Hopster: Wicked - Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Best Cinematography

Nominees

• The Brutalist - Lol Crawley (-340)
• Dune: Part Two - Greig Fraser (+550)
• Emilia Pérez - Paul Guilhaume (+6500)
• Maria - Ed Lachman (+2000)
• Nosferatu - Jarin Blaschke (+350)

Predictions

Hopster: This year, the American Society of Cinematographers Award for Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography in Theatrical Releases (which is quite the mouthful) went to Maria, which interestingly enough if polling in fourth in Vegas' Oscars odds. Ahead of it are three films that are more than worthy of the award, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, and The Brutalist. You would assume Greig Fraser, who won a few years ago for his work on Dune, is the frontrunner here. He's certainly one of the most sought-after and accomplished DPs working in the business today. And then there's Jarin Blaschke, Robert Eggers' long-time collaborator who delivers stunning work in Nosferatu, of which the cinematography may be the film's foremost accomplishment. But I'm betting Lol Crawley gets recognized for his work on The Brutalist. The fact that he pulled off shooting the entire film in 35mm VistaVision with such limited resources for an independent production is an achievement on to itself that cannot go unnoticed by the Academy.

Isaac: The Brutalist - Lol Crawley

Anora [2024]

Best Film Editing

Nominees

• Anora - Sean Baker (+150)
• The Brutalist - David Jancso (+700)
• Conclave - Nick Emerson (-140)
• Emilia Pérez - Juliette Welfling (+3500)
• Wicked - Myron Kerstein (+1400)

Predictions

Isaac: This is by far the tightest race of today's preview. While there may be some upsets in the other categories, Film Editing feels like a complete toss up between Conclave and Anora. While Emerson won the BAFTA for editing, he lost the Critics Choice, but Sean Baker wasn't even nominated for it. Meanwhile, Anora and Conclave are in separate categories for the American Cinema Editors (ACE) awards so they could both benefit from their own win. However, the ACE for Drama films has been much more predictive of the Oscar since 2001, matching 57% of the time, whereas the ACE for Comedy/Musical only matches with the Academy 13% of the time. The only Comedy/Musical winners to win both the ACE and the Oscar are Chicago, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Bohemian Rhapsody so it would be rarified air if Anora were to win the ACE award and the Oscar. But even with how much more predictive the Drama category of the ACE is, the BAFTA is almost like a curse? The BAFTA for Editing only predicts the Oscar winner 43% of the time, a nice little reminder that the BAFTAs are almost on their own little planet, but to say that winning another award hurts Conclave's chances would be ridiculous. I think part of the favor towards Conclave from a betting perspective is that extra award win but also the fact that Anora wasn't nominated for the Critics Choice, but ultimately I think it's a complete coin flip for who wins. I love a good underdog and as much as I thoroughly enjoyed Conclave and wished Anora was about 15 minutes shorter, some of the comedic scenes were overlong, I think the Academy recognizes Baker's work and Anora takes it home.

Hopster: Conclave - Nick Emerson

Best Visual Effects

Nominees

• Alien: Romulus - Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan (+3500)
• Better Man - Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs (+2500)
• Dune: Part Two - Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer (-800)
• Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke (+400)
• Wicked - Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould (+2000)

Predictions

Hopster: If you had asked me after the film premiered back in March 2024, I would've assumed guessed that Dune: Part Two might run away with or at least be the film to beat in a bunch of below-the-line technical categories at the Academy Awards, including Best Production Design, Best Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Sound, to name a few. Surprisingly, it seems the this Herbert-adapted sequel has fallen out of favor or at least out of the spotlight this awards season, and I'm wondering how many Oscars it goes home with on Sunday. However, I think it winning Best Visual Effects should be a no-brainer and will be a surefire win. Paired with Villeneuve's brilliant sense of image-making and pacing, the visuals in this film are out of control, both in a micro- and macro-sense. Even now, I can close my eyes and only imagine how they pulled off some of the visual effects, particularly the opening sequence where the Sardaukar float up to the top of the mountain. That was absolutely breathtaking. A film that looks like this sends shivers down your spine should absolutely win the Oscar.

Isaac: Dune: Part Two - Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer*