Our Oscars Preview - The Acting Categories [2024]

It's Oscars Week '24! Maybe this our year to nail our predictions... Here is Part 4 of our preview.

Barbie [2023]

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees

• Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction as Clifford "Cliff" Ellison (+2900)
• Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon as William King Hale (+1800)
• Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer as Lewis Strauss (-2400)
• Ryan Gosling – Barbie as Ken (+1100)
• Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things as Duncan Wedderburn (+1800)

Predictions

Hopster: This race is probably already over, right? Robert Downey Jr. has won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG Award for Best Supporting Actor for his excellent performance in Oppenheimer. In the last twenty years at the Academy Awards, this clean sweep in Best Supporting Actor heading into the Oscars has happened NINE times. In ALL NINE of those instances, the actor went on to win at the Oscars, too. (This illustrious list includes Daniel Kaluuya, Brad Pitt, Mahershala Ali, Sam Rockwell, J.K. Simmons, Christopher Plummer, Christoph Waltz, Heath Ledger, and Javier Bardem). With all that said, this isn't a race, it's a foregone conclusion. Downey has run the gauntlet, and there is essentially no way he loses on Sunday. I'm a huge fan of Ryan Gosling's all-out performance in Barbie and I'm rooting for good things to happen to Mark Ruffalo in perpetuity, but you would be lighting your money on fire if you placed a bet on anyone other than Downey.

Isaac: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer as Lewis Strauss

The Holdovers [2023]

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees

• Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer as Kitty Oppenheimer (+1400)
• Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple as Sofia (+1600)
• America Ferrera – Barbie as Gloria (+2600)
• Jodie Foster – Nyad as Bonnie Stoll (+2900)
• Da'Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers as Mary Lamb (-2000)

Predictions

Isaac: What more can I say about this race that Hopster hasn't said about Best Supporting Actor? Da'Vine Joy Randolph is on an absolute heater with winning the Critics Choice, Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA for her fantastic role in Alexander Payne's The Holdovers. The numbers don't lie here. Come March 10th, Da'Vine Joy Randolph will be winning an Oscar.

Hopster: Da'Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers as Mary Lamb

Rustin [2023]

Best Actor

Nominees

• Bradley Cooper – Maestro as Leonard Bernstein (+1700)
• Colman Domingo – Rustin as Bayard Rustin (+6500)
• Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers as Paul Hunham (+1100)
• Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer as J. Robert Oppenheimer (-1400)
• Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction as Thelonious "Monk" Ellison (+6500)

Predictions

Hopster: There was a moment in time not that long ago when it felt like Best Actor could be an exciting race to follow leading up to this year's Academy Awards. Paul Giamatti's win for his extremely likeable performance in The Holdovers at the Critics Choice Awards was something of a blip in what became a one-man race starring the stoic Irishman starring in the titular role of Oppenheimer, Cillian Murphy. While this category doesn't necessarily have the smell of inevitability on it in the same way that the two supporting acting categories do, this is more or less a wrap, too. Murphy has won just about every other notable Best Actor trophy from the major associations and industry awards that have been given out over the past few months (again, aside from the Critics Choice Award). He seems to have it wrapped up. I remember walking out of Oppenheimer back in July clinging to what felt like an uncertain hope that Murphy would get recognized at this year's Oscars. At the time, I wasn't sure if his strong performance and undeniable on-screen presence would be overshadowed by the overwhelming power and prowess of the machine Christopher Nolan had constructed around his favorite character-actor-turned-leading-man. Now that notion seems a bit naïve and rather silly – Murphy is phenomenal.

Isaac: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer as J. Robert Oppenheimer

Killers of the Flower Moon [2023]

Best Actress

Nominees

• Annette Bening – Nyad as Diana Nyad (+4500)
• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon as Mollie Burkhart (-125)
• Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall as Sandra Voyter (+1900)
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro as Felicia Montealegre (+3700)
• Emma Stone – Poor Things as Bella Baxter (-125)

Predictions

Isaac: What an awesome year for Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone! They've basically split the precursors straight down the middle, and go into Oscars night in a dead even tie with each other. This has to be one of, if not the most exciting race of this year's awards. On one side, is Stone who could well be on her way to her second Oscar at age 35. While not the youngest to achieve that feat (Jodie Foster at 30) she joins only 15 other women that have two Oscars! Stone has quickly, and methodically, established herself as one of the most exciting actors working today and her career has had a tremendous trajectory. Her partnership with Yorgos Lanthimos has unlocked a higher echelon of performing and it really, really is amazing to watch and I can't wait for whatever she's attached to in the future. On the other side is Gladstone whose performance in Killers of the Flower Moon is probably the harder role but she brings an emotional intensity that is unmatched. She went pound for pound, punch for punch, on screen with greats such as Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro and was justifiably nominated for the Oscar. She wasn't nominated for a BAFTA, an egregious omission, as that went to Emma Stone but Gladstone's SAG win brought her right back into the thick of it. Not to mention both won Golden Globes, Gladstone in Drama and Stone in Comedy/Musical, which brings us to an eerily similar situation as last year. The split is just about the exact same as Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh, the latter went on to win the Oscar. Blanchett won the Globe in Drama while Yeoh won in Comedy/Musical, and as Blanchett took home the BAFTA, Yeoh won the coveted SAG award. In the last 10 years, the SAG winner has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Actress 8 times. I think that streak continues this year with a monumental win for Lily Gladstone. Which would also make Oscars history, cementing her as the first Native American to win an Oscar for an acting category!

Hopster: Emma Stone – Poor Things as Bella Baxter