Our Oscars Preview - The Niche Categories [2025]

It's Oscars Week '25! Maybe this is our year to nail our predictions... Here is Part 2 of our preview.

Memoir of a Snail [2024]

Best Animated Feature Film

Nominees

• Flow - Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens and Gregory Zalcman (+225)
• Inside Out 2 - Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen (+2000)
• Memoir of a Snail - Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney (+3500)
• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl - Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham and Richard Beek (+1600)
• The Wild Robot - Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann (-340)

Predictions

Hopster: Here we go, a really interesting category! How often do we get to discuss a group of nominees that are this strong top-to-bottom, where you might actually feel good about any of the films winning? Do I think Inside Out 2 should or will win? No, not really, even though it is a sturdy sequel to a beloved Pixar film. How about Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl? It seems unlikely it will win, even though Aardman Animations almost never makes anything less than entertaining. And there's Memoir of a Snail, an adult stop-motion tragicomedy that may be the most technically impressive of the bunch. Vegas isn't giving it much of a chance to win, but maybe that's because more adult animated films seem to not fair as well in the awards circuit. Which leaves us two of the best animated films in recent memory. The first is the Latvian film Flow, a dialogue-less film about a cat surviving ecological destruction that relies on its visual storytelling to efficiently package mature themes within a surrealist video game world. The second is The Wild Robot, which delivered one of the most emotionally satisfying experiences I had watching a film all year. You could make the case that The Wild Robot not only is the best film of this bunch but also deserves a spot in the Best Picture race. As much as I loved Flow, a film I am convinced has super powers and can speak to animals (my black cat was transfixed for the entire runtime), I am predicting that The Wild Robot wins, which struck and plucked my heartstrings effortlessly. What a treat that all these films are recognized and any of them would make a worthy winner.

Isaac: The Wild Robot - Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann

In the Shadow of the Cypress [2023]

Best Animated Short Film

Nominees

• Beautiful Men - Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande (+225)
• In the Shadow of the Cypress - Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi (+4000)
• Magic Candies - Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio (+1200)
• Wander to Wonder - Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper (-250)
• Yuck! - Loïc Espuche and Juliette Marquet (+900)

Predictions

Isaac: After bagging the Annie Award for Best Short Subject and the BAFTA for Best Short Animation, Wander to Wonder has seen its odds soar for bringing home the Oscar for Best Animated Short Film. Which, seeing the beautiful stop motion craftsmanship and the film's intricate mixture of humor, grief, and oddities makes complete sense to me, it's a wonderful film. But even though Wander to Wonder was the only short amongst the nominees to win at the Annies, Yuck! was the only one nominated in two categories, Best Special Production and Best Writing TV/Media. It lost both of those awards to Orion and the Dark which seems a little odd to have a short competing (and losing) to a feature film, but the nominations alone are quite compelling. I'm not sure I quite agree with the extreme odds of In the Shadow of the Cypress not only because of its compelling story and gorgeous animation, but because it atleast received an Annie nomination whereas Magic Candies was blanked entirely. Then of course there's the idea that these precursor awards I always yap about are predictors of the Oscar, which is rarely true. In fact, outside of last year's win for War is Over! you'd have to go back to 2017 to find the Annie winner match the Oscar winner with Dear Basketball. So even though Wander to Wonder seems to have a leg up, it could totally go another direction. Which is where I find myself going. I think Yuck! is going to pull the upset for its thoughtful story and vibrant animation, maybe I'm trying to stay away from picking straight chalk too much but hey, that's what makes it fun.

Hopster: Wander to Wonder - Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper

Best International Feature Film

Nominees

• I'm Still Here (Brazil) - directed by Walter Salles (-140)
• The Girl with the Needle (Denmark) - directed by Magnus von Horn (+4000)
• Emilia Pérez (France) - directed by Jacques Audiard (+110)
• The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany) - directed by Mohammad Rasoulof (+1400)
• Flow (Latvia) - directed by Gints Zilbalodis (+2500)

Predictions

Hopster: Hmmm, what to do what to do. This one's tricky. Let's work through it. The Girl with the Needle, Flow, and The Seed of the Sacred Fig all seem to be on the outside looking in at this point (the latter of which looked to be the frontrunner a few months ago). My gut is telling me that the rise and fall of Emilia Pérez in public favor will benefit I'm Still Here, a film like Emilia Pérez that is double-dipping in both Best International Feature Film and Best Picture. There are still other categories we have not talked about that I think voters might choose to recognize certain aspects of Emilia Pérez, but I do believe it's chances in a lot of major categories has all be dissipated. Should that be the case, I think I'm Still Here will rise to the top here and pull of the win. I'm Still Here is just as worthy and far and away less controversial, and when you're trying to predict winners, it certainly presents as a far less risky option.

Isaac: Emilia Pérez (France) - directed by Jacques Audiard

I'm Not a Robot [2023]

Best Live Action Short Film

Nominees

• A Lien - Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz (+150)
• Anuja - Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai (+250)
• I'm Not a Robot - Victoria Warmerdam and Trent (+650)
• The Last Ranger - Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw (+3000)
• The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent - Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek (+175)

Predictions

Isaac: Another toss up! After last year's Live Action Short Film category was a runaway victory for The Wonderful Life of Henry Sugar, netting Wes Anderson his first Oscar, this year's field is much more difficult to predict. A Lien is an incredibly potent depiction of the bureaucratic process of immigration and has Adam McKay as an executive producer, which could boost its star power if you will. And we all know the Academy loves McKay, looking at you Best Picture nominee Don't Look Up. But I'm thinking there's going to be another upset here, which isn't saying too much since there's not really too big a favorite. Anuja, with a production team that has Mindy Kaling and Priyanka Chopra Jones, is a tremendously well done short film in every capacity. From acting, Sajda Pathan as Anuja is extraordinary, to Adam J. Graves' direction and writing, I was blown away by this short film. Otherwise if I had to pick a runner-up, I'd love to see I'm Not a Robot swoop in too. It's a fantastic short that reverberates between outrageous semi-dark humor and poignant commentary on identity, and shows our collective displeasure with CAPTCHA's (this was not written by a robot).

Hopster: Anuja - Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai

Best Documentary Short Subject

Nominees

• Death by Numbers - Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard (+370)
• I Am Ready, Warden - Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp (+100)
• Incident - Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven (+450)
• Instruments of a Beating Heart - Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari (+2800)
• The Only Girl in the Orchestra - Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington (+260)

Predictions

Hopster: Last year, I made a point of seeing every nominated short for the first time ever. It was a truly rewarding experience! This year, I haven't seen a single one. Rather than bullshit you all, my prediction is a simple one here: I'm taking the current favorite, I Am Ready, Warden. I hope to catch up on the shorts after the Oscars, and I promise I'll do better next year (maybe I don't promise but I promise I'll try).

Isaac: The Only Girl in the Orchestra - Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington

Black Box Diaries [2024]

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees

• Black Box Diaries - Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari and Hanna Aqvilin (+2000)
• No Other Land - Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham (-165)
• Porcelain War - Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska and Paula DuPre' Pesmen (+150)
• Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat - Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius and Rémi Grellety (+1600)
• Sugarcane - Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie and Kellen Quinn (+700)

Predictions

Isaac: I always like to save some, sorry, hold some space to make fun of the Academy during these previews and I think here's a good place for it. Because, what the shit is this lineup? Now I agree that Documentary Feature can be an incredibly tough category and I'm not in any way diminishing the nominees here nor am I saying that they should be removed. I'm merely bringing up that the two front-runners, Porcelain War and No Other Land, haven't won much of anything leading up to the Oscars. Yes, Porcelain War won the DGA for Best Documentary and No Other Land won the International Documentary Association award, and there's some festival wins sprinkled throughout but the two big winners from the precursors weren't even nominated. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story took home the PGA, BAFTA and shared the Critics Choice award with yet another outstanding (and not nominated) documentary, Will and Harper. Again, I'm not saying kick out Black Box Diaries for one of these, but usually there's at least some overlap with the PGA, DGA, BAFTA and Critics Choice with them splitting across nominees or highlighting a clear favorite. 20 Days in Mariupol won the BAFTA and DGA, Navalny won the BAFTA and PGA, as did Summer of Soul, and so on. From a birds eye view, I think this category could be a toss up between the top three of No Other Land, Porcelain War, and Sugarcane with the first two benefitting from winning at least some big award. As much as I think the DGA holds more weight, it's as clear as mud how the Academy views the precursors when the docs that win more aren't nominated. So I'm going to go with the current favorite, which feels like it has more momentum at the moment which is No Other Land. But I wouldn't be shocked if I'm wrong here.

Hopster: Sugarcane - Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie and Kellen Quinn