Our Oscars Preview - The Acting Categories [2025]

It's Oscars Week '25! Maybe this our year to nail our predictions... Here is Part 4 of our preview.

The Brutalist [2024]

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees

• Yura Borisov - Anora (+1800)
• Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain (-3500)
• Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown (+1100)
• Guy Pearce - The Brutalist (+2000)
• Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice (+2000)

Predictions

Isaac: I'm just going to be echoing exactly what Hopster said last year about Robert Downey Jr. but with Kieran Culkin. Last year, Hopster mentioned that in the last 20 years there were ten instances of a supporting actor winning the SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and Golden Globe with Downey Jr. being the tenth occurrence. Well, now we can say that's eleven instances of that exact same sweep with Kieran Culkin raking in the awards. And what else was mentioned last year? That the nine sweeps prior to Downey Jr. all ended with winning the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. Of course Downey Jr. made that 10 and if I was a betting man, I'd bet the kids' college tuition money on Culkin winning here. Note that this is not financial advice and you should most definitely not do that. But yeah, Culkin is going to win here. It's also wonderful seeing the Succession boys here together like one big happy family.

Hopster: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

A Complete Unknown [2024]

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees

• Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown (+2500)
• Ariana Grande - Wicked (+800)
• Felicity Jones - The Brutalist (+1400)
• Isabella Rossellini - Conclave (+2000)
• Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez (-2500)

Predictions

Hopster: Much like Best Supporting Actor, this category feels like a lock and has been since the very beginning of awards season. Despite the controversies, the one undeniable aspect of Emilia Pérez that voters have gone out of their way to recognize is the supporting performance from Zoe Saldaña. Much like Culkin, Saldaña has won every major precursor award – BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG. She’s been cleaning up for months now, and her momentum hasn’t lessened, even in the face of her film’s fall from being an Oscars frontrunner to falling out of contention almost entirely (in addition to its becoming a moral quagmire and now a competitive afterthought). While your opinion may vary as to whether this performance is truly a supporting performance and not a leading one (category fraud strikes again!), it’s safe to say it doesn’t really matter – Saldaña brings her everything to this role and shoulders nearly every scene she is in. Her performance is reminiscent of a Mike Trout MVP season before Ohtani showed up in LA – she’s doing the most with the least, and despite the subpar record for the team, you have to imagine how bad things would be if she wasn’t giving her all. I'm realizing now that I can't iron out this Ohtani analogy any further since he moved across town... Just remember, picking Saldaña in this category is a slam-dunk, don't-overthink-it, no-brainer! so don’t fuck up your ballot trying to get cute.

Isaac: Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez

The Apprentice [2024]

Best Actor

Nominees

• Adrien Brody - The Brutalist (-230)
• Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown (+150)
• Colman Domingo - Sing Sing (+3500)
• Ralph Fiennes - Conclave (+1600)
• Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice (+3500)

Predictions

Isaac: In one corner, we have Adrien Brody, the reigning "youngest to win Best Actor" who's up once again for his transcendent work in The Brutalist. Usage of AI be damned, Brody captivates as László Toth and his performance is the heartbeat of Brady Corbet's near-4-hour historical epic, making this, an exceptionally well-deserved second Academy Award nomination for him. This year, Brody has taken home the BAFTA, Golden Globe (for drama), and Critics Choice for Best Actor, which puts him in similar territory as Casey Affleck in 2017. That year, Affleck won those three awards for Manchester by the Sea, lost the SAG to Denzel Washington for Fences, and still took home the Oscar. More often than not the SAG aligns with at least one of these precursor awards but the sheer resume that Brody has built this awards season is tough to deny. But, in the other corner we have Timothée Chalamet whose win would crown him the newest "youngest to win Best Actor" for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in James Mangold's A Complete Unknown. Chalamet took home the SAG award which is usually the strongest indicator for winning the Oscar for Best Actor. In fact, over the last 15 years, the SAG winner has failed to win the Oscar only twice. The aforementioned instance of Denzel Washington's win in 2017 and Chadwick Boseman in 2021 who ended up losing the Oscar to Anthony Hopkins are the only two times over the last 15 years, two times! Of course, Boseman had won the Golden Globe (for drama) and the Critics Choice, while Hopkins' lone win was the BAFTA so the entire scenario is much more akin to Washington winning the SAG and Affleck taking home the Oscar. The real question is, how will voters look at the absolute catnip that is a musical biopic performance? And how will they actually compare that with the usage of AI to enhance Brody's Hungarian accent? Ultimately, I think this has all of the ingredients for an upset victory à la Brendan Fraser winning over Colin Farrell with Timothée Chalamet being crowned the youngest to win the Best Actor Oscar.

Hopster: Adrien Brody - The Brutalist

I'm Still Here [2024]

Best Actress

Nominees

• Cynthia Erivo - Wicked (+3500)
• Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez (+3500)
• Mikey Madison - Anora (+165)
• Demi Moore - The Substance (-250)
• Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here (+1400)

Predictions

Hopster: In yesteryears, the major categories at the Academy Awards have tightened up, and there have been fewer close races and less holy shit moments on Oscar night. That kind of general consensus makes predicting one’s ballot easier (unless you’re a dipshit like me), but it leads to less drama from an awards show perspective. However, as we just discussed with Best Actor, Best Actress is ultra-competitive this year! Well, at least it’s a close race between two of the nominees, Mikey Madison from Anora and Demi Moore from The Substance. Not too dissimilar from the dynamic between Adrien Brody and Timothée Chalamet, the outcome of this category will be either a full-circle body-of-work coronation for (Moore) or a “star is born” moment (Madison). What’s different here is that Moore (unlike Brody) has not yet won an Oscar before, so a win for her would be long overdue but also right on time in that this is perhaps the most audacious performance of her career. Conversely, Madison is a relative newcomer to the casual movie fan, and based on the small sample size, it seems she is well on her way to becoming a must-watch star. The precursor awards paint a murky picture, but as of now, Moore is the odds-on favorite; she’s won the Critics’ Choice, a Golden Globe, and the SAG award. Madison has stayed in the race by winning the BAFTA and the Independent Spirit Award for Best Lead Performance, both of which have come later in the race and show some momentum for Anora. Like Best Actor, this may very well be a coin flip, which will make for an exciting telecast! I’m definitely cheering for Moore (and The Substance writ large) and rooting for her to have a big moment... but also, Mikey Madison might’ve delivered the performance of the year… okay fine, I’m placing my bets on Madison by a sliver.

Isaac: Demi Moore - The Substance